Ice a cikin Arctic zai narke gaba daya a cikin watanni na lokacin bazara a tsakiyar karni na 21, Haruffa na Binciken Yaruffa Ya rubuta. An ba da rahoton cewa masana kimiyyar na Jamus sun tara darajoji daban-daban na ci gaban al'amuran a cikin Tekun Arctic bisa ga lura da tauraron dan adam a cikin shekaru 40 da suka gabata. Musamman, masana kimiyyar sunyi kokarin gano abin da zai faru da dusar kankara yayin da aka samu raguwar gurbataccen iskar carbon dioxide a nan gaba, kuma sun yi la’akari da zabin da komai ya kasance kamar yadda yake. Modeling ya nuna cewa koda a cikin yanayin yanayin mafi kyau, tun kafin 2050, dusar ƙanƙarar Arctic zata ɓace gaba ɗaya a lokacin bazara kuma kawai zai sake daskarewa a cikin hunturu. Don haka, a cewar masana, ba za a daina yin lalacewa a Arewa ba.

Idan muka hanzarta da kuma rage yawan gurɓacewar duniya kuma ta haka muke kiyaye dumamar yanayi a ƙasa da 2 ° C dangane da matakan masana'antu, to, a nan tekun Arctic na iya ɓacewa a wasu lokutan bazara kafin 2050

Geophysicist daga Jami'ar Hamburg

Masu binciken sun jaddada cewa ko da narkewar yanayin glaciers babban bala'i ne ga yanayin ƙasa: kumburin pola, like da sauran dabbobi da yawa zasu rasa mazauninsu na yau da kullun. Koyaya, masana ilimin hawan dutse duk da haka sun nuna fatan cewa, idan aka rage matakan gurɓataccen iska, zai yuwu aƙalla a mayar da dawwama hunturu zuwa ga Arctic.

Masana ilimin kimiyya kuma sun yi bayanin cewa yanayin yanayi yana haɓaka yanayin ɓarnar dusar kankara a koyaushe. Gaskiyar ita ce kankara yana nuna hasken rana kuma hakan yana hana haɓakar zafin jiki. Dangane da haka, tsawon shekaru, kamar yadda ake narkewa a cikin Arctic, ana yin haskakawa da ƙarancin haskoki, wanda ke nufin cewa sama yana daɗaɗa zafi.

Yin tallan kayan tarihi, tarihi da hasashen yankin kankara

Misalan komputa suna yin hasashen cewa yankin da ke kankarar teku zai ci gaba da tabarbarewa a nan gaba, kodayake aikin da aka yi kwanan nan yana jefa shakku game da iyawar su yadda ya kamata da hango sauye-sauye a kan kan teku. Tsarin yanayi na zamani sau da yawa ba sa yin la'akari da ƙimar raguwar dusar kankara. A cikin 2007, IPCC ta ba da rahoton cewa "a cikin Arctic, ana hasashen rage raguwar murfin kankara a duniya zai hanzarta, kuma bisa ga wasu samfuri a cikin yanayin A2 tare da hauhawar iska, iska kankara ta bazara ta lalace gaba daya a rabin karni na 21." A halin yanzu babu wata shaidar kimiyya da ke nuna cewa Arctic Arctic ta taɓa zama kankara a cikin shekaru 700,000 da suka gabata, kodayake akwai lokutan da Arctic ɗin ta yi zafi sama da yau. Masana kimiyya suna nazarin yiwuwar dalilai na alaƙa, kamar canje-canje kai tsaye da ke da alaƙa da hayakin kore, da kuma canje-canje kai tsaye, kamar iska, baƙon yanayi, yanayin zafi a cikin Arctic, ko canje-canje a cikin zagayarwar ruwa (alal misali, haɓakar kwararar ruwa mai ɗumi a cikin Tekun Arctic daga koguna) .

A cewar kungiyar gwamnatoci kan canjin yanayi, “dumamar yanayi a cikin Arctic, kamar yadda mafi girman yanayin yau da kullun yake da mafi karancin yanayi, ya kasance babba a kowane yanki na duniya.” Rage yanki na kankara a cikin Arctic yana haifar da raguwa da ƙarfin hasken rana da aka nuna a cikin sararin samaniya, don haka yana hanzarta ragewa. Bincike ya nuna cewa dumamar da aka yi kwanan nan a yankuna pola ta kasance saboda tasirin tasirin ɗan adam, dumama saboda radadi daga iskar gas na ɓoye ne kawai ta hanyar sanya sanyi sakamakon lalacewar layin ozone.

Mentsididdigar madogara na kankara na teku ta fara ne da farawar tauraron dan adam a ƙarshen 1970s. Kafin zuwan tauraron dan adam, an gudanar da binciken yankin ne musamman ta amfani da jiragen ruwa, jirgi da jirgi. Muhimmin bambance-bambancen ra'ayi suna wanzu cikin rage murfin kankara. Wasu daga cikin waɗannan canje-canjen na iya danganta su da tasirin irin su Arctic oscillation, wanda a cikin sa na iya danganta shi da dumamar yanayi, wasu canje-canje sune bazuwar “amo na yanayi”.

Yankin kankara na Arctic, ya kai ƙarami a cikin Satumba, ya kai sabon rakodin raguwa a cikin 2002, 2005, 2007 (kashi 39.2 bisa ɗari ƙasa da matsakaita na 1979-2000) da 2012. A farkon watan Agusta 2007, wata daya kafin ƙarshen lokacin narkewa, mafi girman ragi a cikin dusar kankara ta Arctic a cikin duk tarihin abubuwan lura - fiye da murabba'in kilomita miliyan. A karo na farko a cikin ƙwaƙwalwar ɗan adam, almara na Arewa maso Yamma ya buɗe gaba ɗaya. An kai kankara na shekara-shekara tsawon mil mil 4.28. . Canjin ban mamaki na 2007 ya ba masana kimiyya da damuwa damuwa.

Daga 2008 zuwa 2011, mafi ƙanƙanyen kankara a cikin Arctic ya fi na 2007, amma duk da haka bai koma matakin shekarun da suka gabata ba. A ƙarshen watan Agusta 2012, makonni 3 kafin ƙarshen lokacin narkewa, an yi sabon rikodin mafi ƙarancin kankara. Bayan 'yan kwanaki bayan haka, a ƙarshen watan Agusta, yankin kankara mai ƙasa bai wuce murabba'in kilomita miliyan 4 ba. Mafi ƙarancin an kai shi a Satumba 16, 2012 kuma ya kai murabba'in kilomita miliyan 3.39, ko kuma murabba'in kilomita 760,000 ƙasa da matsayin da ya gabata a ranar 18 ga Satumba, 2007. Koyaya, a cikin 2013, yawan narkewar kankara ya ragu sosai fiye da 2010-2012, a cikin Mayu da Yuni 2013 yankin kankara yana kusa da al'ada, bayan ya kai mafi girman murabba'in kilomita miliyan 5 (a kan 3.4 a cikin 2012), ya fara girma. Hakanan, a cikin shekarar 2014 yankin kankara ya fi girma fiye da na shekarar 2008-12, wanda ya kai girman murabba'in kilomita miliyan 5.0, wanda yake kusa da ka'idar 1979-2010 (kimanin kilomita miliyan 6.0).

Ya kamata kuma a la'akari da cewa kafin shekarar 1979, lokacin da ba a aiwatar da lura da tauraron dan adam ba, an kuma lura da yanayin kankara, wanda a cikin shekarar 1920-1940 shima ya haifar da tattaunawa game da dumamar yanayin Arctic.

Thicknessarfin dusar ƙanƙara, kuma, gwargwadon haka, girma da taro, yana da wahalar aunawa fiye da yankin. Ana iya yin cikakken ma'auni akan iyakataccen maki. Sakamakon sauye sauye cikin kauri da abun da ke tattare da kankara, dusar kankara yakamata a yi nazari a hankali. Koyaya, binciken ya tabbatar da zato na rage raguwa a tsufa da kazaran kankara. Binciken Catlin Arctic ya ba da rahoton cewa matsakaicin kankara ya kai mita 1.8 a arewacin tekun Beaufort, yankin da a al'adance ya saba da yashi mai kauri. Wata hanyar kuma ita ce yin kwatankwacin kwayar lamba, dusar kankara da narkewar kankara a cikin tsarin yanayin yanayin hade tare da sigogi masu kyau don fitarwa ta dace da bayanan da aka sani akan kauri da yankin kankara.

Adadin raguwar adadin kankara na shekara-shekara a cikin Arctic yana haɓaka. A cikin 1979-1996, matsakaiciyar raguwa a cikin shekaru goma a matsakaicin kankara shine 2.2% na ƙarar kuma 3% na yankin. Shekaru da suka ƙare a shekara ta 2008, waɗannan dabi'u sun haura zuwa 10.1% da 10.7%, bi da bi. Wannan yana da alaƙa da canji a cikin mafi ƙarancin shekara-shekara (wato, kankarar da aka ci gaba duk shekara). A cikin lokacin daga 1979 zuwa 2007, a matsakaita akan shekaru goma, ragin raguwa ya kasance 10.2% da 11.4%, bi da bi. Wannan ya yi daidai da ma'aunin ICESat, yana nuna raguwa a cikin daskararren kankara a cikin Arctic da raguwa a cikin yanki na dusar ƙanƙara. Tsakanin 2005 da 2008, an rage yawan dusar kankara da kashi 42%, kuma ƙarar ta kashi 40%, asarar ta zama

Siffar yankin yanki mai ƙanƙan kankara na shekara-shekara a cikin Arctic don duk lokacin kallo tun daga 1979 (wanda aka rubuta a kowace shekara a tsakiyar Satumba):

Akasin saukan hasashe game da fa'idar da dumamar dumamar yanayi ke da ita a cikin yanayi a Rasha, sakamakonsa ga ƙasarmu na iya zama bala'i .. A watan Mayu, mataki na biyu na nazarin yanayin ƙarfin gabar tekun Arctic, wanda ƙungiyar Laboratory na North Geoecology na sashen Geography na Jami'ar Jihar Moscow yakamata a kammala.

Muhawarar game da dumamar yanayi na ta gudana sama da shekaru 20. Wani ya yi imanin cewa zai iya haifar da mutuwar wayewar, kuma wani ya ɗauki duk wannan rikice-rikice na masana kimiyya waɗanda ke buƙatar tallafi. Ictionsari da yawa tsinkaya suna firgita duniya, amma kusan za a sami wani wanda ya bayyana su babu isasshen cikakkiyar gaskiya, cike da damuwa, ko ma cikakke mara ma'ana.

Victor Kuzovkov

Gaskiya ne, akwai guda ɗaya - shekarun da suka gabata sun isa ga wasu motsin canjin yanayi don riga su bayyana kansu. Kuma a halin yanzu, masana kimiyya suna da tushen tabbaci na gwaji wanda ke ba ku damar tabbatar da wani abu, ɓatanci wani abu da daidaitawa, ta wannan hanyar, kowane hasashen lokaci mai tsawo.

Ya kamata a sani cewa ba wuri na ƙarshe da aka sanya ba a cikin rikice-rikicen yanayin zafi na Rasha. Wannan ya faru ne saboda dalilai biyu: da farko, da yawa daga cikin mu sun yi imani cewa dumamar yanayi za ta amfana da Rasha kawai saboda ci gaban gaba ɗaya na mawuyacin yanayi, kuma abu na biyu, saboda babban yanki na ƙasar Rasha da ke rufe da ruwa. Gaskiyar ita ce batun dusar ƙanƙara mai danshi yana da matukar muhimmanci wanda ya mamaye wani wuri na daban a matsalar dumamar yanayi. Kuma an yi bayanin wannan a sauƙaƙe: permafrost, lokacin da aka daskare shi, zai iya sakin carbon mai yawa da dumamar yanayi na iya haɓaka kamar daskararru.

Wannan shine dalilin da ya sa aka sa ido sosai ga yanayin ƙasar permafrost a Rasha. Musamman ma, tuni a watan Mayu, ya kamata a kammala matakin na biyu na binciken abubuwan da ke tattare da yanayin Arctic, wanda ƙungiyar Laboratory of Geoecology na Arewa na Sashen Geography na Jami'ar Jihar Moscow yakamata a kammala. Ana gudanar da wannan binciken a zaman wani ɓangare na aikin Gidauniyar Rasha don Ba da Bincike Na ainihi (RFBR) A'a 18-05-60300 "Thermal na tekun Bahar Rum na Arctic", kuma yayi alƙawarin zama mafi girma a cikin tarihin zamani. Masana kimiyya suna fatan tattara bayanai waɗanda zasu basu damar ƙirƙirar cikakkiyar hoto game da rushewar tekun Arctic, bayyana hanyoyin da gano tasirin tasirin yanayin yanayin duniya akan ayyukan duniya da na gida na lalacewar gabar teku a yankin Arctic na Rasha.

Wannan binciken ya kasance, ban da na kimiyya kawai, kuma yana da mahimmancin amfani. Mun san mahimmancin kayayyakin bututun bututu don Rasha, wani sashi mai mahimmanci wanda yake a yankin Arctic. Matsalar karuwar tataccen danshi mai danshi ya riga ya dace da ma'aikatan iskar gas na Rasha da kuma ma'aikatan masana'antar mai, tunda daidaitaccen fasahar gini a cikin yanki mai lalacewa ya haɗa da shimfida tushe ko tuki a cikin zurfin da yanayin ya zama ruwan dare a cikin shekara. Yanzu, lokacin da waɗannan sigogi suka fara canzawa, sau da yawa mutane suna fuskantar matsalar lalacewar tushe, ɓarkewar gine-gine da kuma rashin yiwuwar ƙarin aikin su.

Sakamakon canjin yanayi, an riga an fara fuskantar garuruwa irin na biranen Rasha kamar Vorkuta, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Salekhard, Chita da Ulan-Ude. Kuma a ƙarshen karni na ashirin da ɗaya, irin waɗannan biranen arewacin kamar su Magadan, Yakutsk, Igarka suna iya fuskantar haɗari. A halin yanzu, saboda lalacewar yanayi, har zuwa kashi 60 na kayan aiki a Igarka, Dikson, Khatanga sun gurɓace, har zuwa kashi 100 cikin ƙauyuka na Taimyr mai ikon Okrug, kashi 22 cikin Tiksi, kashi 55 cikin Dudinka, kashi 50 cikin Pevek da Amderme, kusan kashi 40 cikin dari suna cikin Vorkuta.

Matsalar halakar da yankin Arctic ita ma matsala ce. A karkashin afkuwar raƙuman ruwa da sauyin yanayi, Tekun Arctic yana komawa kimanin mita 1-5 a shekara, kuma a wasu wuraren, har zuwa mita 10 a kowace shekara. Zai yi kamar a kan sikelin Siberiya ɗinmu wannan ba mai yawa ba, kuma duk da haka: a cikin shekara guda Rasha ta rasa ɗaruruwan murabba'in kilomita na yankin ta, wato, karamar ƙasa ta Turai, kamar Liechtenstein. Hakanan, wanda ya isa ya manta game da tashoshin jiragen ruwa da biranen da ke bakin gabar teku, wanda waɗannan mita 10 a kowace shekara na iya zama mai wahala.

Gabaɗaya, yanki na ƙasa a doron ƙasa ya kai muraba'in kilomita miliyan 35, ko kusan 25% na duk ƙasa mai faɗi. Hanyoyin da ke tattare da carbon dioxide da methane a ciki sune cewa, tare da jan iska mai karfi, tsinkaye a ciki yana da damar fitar da carbon da yawa a cikin yanayi fiye da yadda hayakin fasahar. Gabaɗaya, bisa ga wasu ƙididdigar, adadin ajiyar carbon a cikin permafrost ya kai tan biliyan tiriliyan 1.67, wanda yake kusan sau 8.3 fiye da abubuwan da ke cikin carbon a cikin duk yanayin. A bayyane yake cewa ba duk wannan carbon ɗin yana cikin yanayi mai maƙarƙashiya ba, har ma da yawa waɗannan har yanzu ba su cika ragowar ƙwayoyin ƙwayoyin halitta ba, amma gaskiyar lamarin ita ce bayan an shawo kanta, hanyoyin lalacewar kwayoyin da aka tara sama da miliyoyin shekaru za su tafi da yawa na umarni girman da sauri.

Nazarin ya nuna cewa karuwar ƙananan yanayin ƙasa yana faruwa a cikin Rasha. Kuma mafi yawan abin da ke cikin shiyyoyi ne tare da permafrost - a Yammaci da Gabas Siberiya, a Transbaikalia. A cikin shekaru 10 da suka gabata, ya zama 0.4-0.8 ° C, wanda, da alama, ba mai yawa bane, amma akan sikelin ƙarni yana iya zama mai mutuwa kawai.

Binciken zamani ya kusan kusanci da nazarin hanyoyin aiwatar da canjin yanayi a Arewacin Rasha. Musamman, binciken da aka ambata a sama na Faculty of Geography na Jami'ar Jihar Moscow an gudanar da shi ta amfani da motocin da ba a sarrafa ba (UAVs), kuma an lura da bayanan filin kusan a ko'ina cikin sassan Rasha na Arctic, har zuwa Chukotka. Ya juya cewa a karkashin yanayin canjin yanayi, musamman sanannu a cikin Arctic, a cikin lokacin zafi, iyakar dusar ƙanƙara ta ƙaura zuwa arewa, kuma yankin bakin teku ya sami 'yanci daga kankara na dogon lokaci. Sakamakon haka, saboda karuwa a lokacin tsawan zafi da aiki mai ƙarfi, lokaci na lokacin narkewar ƙasa mai narkewa da tasirin raƙuman ruwa zuwa ƙarshen tudu.

Alas, duk da ƙin yarda da masu shakkun masu ra'ayin gaskiya, bayan shekara ta 2005 hakika an sami ƙaruwa sosai a cikin lalacewar tekun Arctic. Koyaya, masanan kimiyya ba su ga masifar ba tukuna. Gaskiyar ita ce kawai a cikin jimlar tasirin zafin rana da raƙuman ruwa na iya ba da babban sakamako kuma su lalata mafi girman ikon bakin tekun. Amma galibi ana lura da cewa a cikin shekaru masu dumin teku teku ba ta da ruwa sosai, kuma a akasin haka, yawan hadari da guguwa suna tursasa yanayi mai dumin yanayi a wasu lokutan dubban kilomita zurfi zuwa cikin yankin. Sakamakon haka, hanyoyin lalacewar gabar teku ba sa tafiya cikin sauri kamar yadda suke iyawa, ban da haka kuma, aikin kwashe ƙasa daga ruwan zuwa bakin teku yana raguwa.

Koyaya, abubuwan da ke faruwa a cikin dumamar yanayi suna da matukar ban tsoro. Musamman, a kusan dukkanin shafuka masu aunawa a Rasha, ana yin karuwa a cikin kauri daga lokacin narkewa a lokacin bazara. Hukumar Kula da Aerospace ta Amurka ko da NASA ta gabatar da wani nau'in yanayin yanayin kwamfyuta, wanda a cewar sa yanayin permafrost a Rasha da Alaska zai bace nan da 2300. Lokaci, ba shakka, yana da ban sha'awa, amma kuna buƙatar fahimtar cewa a waccan lokacin yanayi zai canza sosai har zuwa matakin teku zai tashi da dubun mita, kuma sauyin yanayin zai zama mai sauƙin faɗi.

Wataƙila babban kuma har zuwa yanzu ba a fahimci hatsarin ba shine zamu iya rasa lokacin da tsarin canjin yanayi zai zama wanda ba za'a iya juyawa ba. Bayan ya tsokane yanayin daskararru, yanayin dan Adam a wani lokaci na iya samun iskar gas mai sarrafawa cikin iska. Tsarin zai fara haɓaka, zai iya haɓaka ta da sauri narkewar dusar kankara ta Antarctic, da hauhawar matakan teku, kuma duk wannan na iya girma kamar ambaliyar ruwa, tare da rage lokacin da aka ba mu don gyara daga ɗaruruwan zuwa dubun dubunnan.Mafi daidaituwa, babu abin da za'a gyara gabaɗaya, amma ƙoƙarin da aƙalla kiyaye yanayin a wasu matakan yarda zai zama mara amfani.

Sabili da haka, duk maganganun da dumamar yanayi ke kawowa Rasha wasu fa'idodi ya kamata a ɗauka tare da yawan shakku. Ana iya samun wasu fa'idodi. Amma suna yin ramuwar gayya game da asarar da za su yi - duka ƙasa, da mutum ya yi, da sauran su, waɗanda ba mu ma san da su ba?

Kuma idan haka ne, muna fatan masana kimiyyarmu su yi nasara: idan kawai suka buɗe idanunmu ga abin da ke faruwa, wannan ya riga ya zama babbar nasararsu. Ee, kuma namu, tabbas ...

Me ke barazanar Arctic da ma duniya gaba ɗaya?

Akwai barazanar garuruwa da ƙauyukan dake kusa da Tekun Arctic. Idan matakin ruwa ya tashi a ciki, to yankin na gabashin Ingila da Ireland na iya ambaliya. Hakanan makomar makamancin wannan ma zata faru a arewacin Faransa, Jamus, Denmark, da Belgium. Rotterdam da Amsterdam za a shafe fuskar duniya. Manyan biranen Washington, Washington, da Miami ma suna cikin hadari.

Yawancin birane da kasashe za su kasance cikin hadarin ambaliyar.

Yawancin dumamar yanayi ana kiranta a cikin Arctic. Yana kan wannan ƙasa cewa zafin jiki ya tashi da sauri fiye da sauran duniya. Dusar kankara tana narkewa, ta haka ne ake haɓaka ruwa. Wannan bi da bi yana haifar da gaskiyar cewa mazauna yankunan Arctic suna fara fuskantar wahalar neman abinci. Insuarancin wadataccen abinci zai haifar da raguwa sosai a yawan adadin ɗobin kuliyoyin, bears, walruses da sauran mazaunan wannan yankin. Idan wannan cigaban ya ci gaba, to a shekarar 2030 yawan karuwar bera zai mutu.

Dabbobin ruwa irin su polar owl da dawakai na arctic suma suna cikin haɗarin. Suna ciyarwa galibi akan lemmings. Waɗannan wakilan ƙwayoyin dabbobi ne da ke rayuwa a cikin tundra. Akwai raguwa mai yawa a cikin zafin jiki, daga haɓakawa zuwa raguwa mai mahimmanci. Wadannan tsalle-tsalle suna shafar ciyayi, wanda shine ainihin abincin lemmings, kuma ragewa, bi da bi, yana haifar da ƙarewar waɗannan ƙwayoyin. Mutuwar wannan nau'in za ta tsokanar dabbobin da yawa. Yankunan teku da ke zaune da kuma ciyar da kankara har abada suna cikin haɗari.

Bala'i na muhalli ba makawa ne, in ji masana kimiyya.

Yawan dumamar yanayi zai haifar da bala'in muhalli, wanda zai haifar da mummunar illa ga mutanen da ke zaune a waɗannan yankuna.

Rayuwa da rayuwar Eskimos, Chukchi, Kodayake zasu lalace, dole ne su bar gidansu su sake zama. Arctic zai mutu, kuma yana da godiya sosai ga wannan yanki cewa an daidaita yanayin Arewacin Hemisphere kuma an gina dorewar rayuwar biliyan da yawa. Idan 'yan shekarun da suka gabata, dumamar dumamar duniya ta kasance makoma mai nisa, yanzu ya zama matsanancin gaske, yana faruwa anan da yanzu.

Shin barazanar bala'i ta duniya ta zama kuwa?

Matsanancin dumamar duniya na haifar da tsoro, tsoro, tsoro da bege. Amma idan ka kalli wannan abin mamakin daga wannan bangaren, to komai ya bambanta, hoton ya kara karfafa gwiwa. A duniyar sama, duk tsawon rayuwarta an lura da zazzabi. Duk wannan ya faru da keke, kowane shekaru 60. Don haka, ya juya cewa tsawon shekaru 60 zafin jiki yana raguwa, sannan ya hau da yawa.

Cyclearshen yanayin zafin jiki na ƙarshe ya fara ne a 1979. Kuma a cikin wannan sake zagayowar, yawan zafin jiki yana karuwa koyaushe. Daga wannan, yankin kankara a cikin Arctic ya ragu da 15-16%. A lokaci guda, Antarctic ba batun wannan sabon abu bane, akwai karuwa a yankin da kauri daga kankara. Tun daga 1950, ana samun yawan zafin jiki akai akai. Zazzage kadan zai iya kasancewa kawai a sashin Antarctic Peninsula. Wannan yana haɗuwa da ɗan ƙaramin abu mai ɗumi a kan iyakar tekun Pacific da Atlantika.

Duniya sanannu zata iya canzawa fiye da fifiko.

A yau, masana sun yi rubuce-rubuce cewa matakin ruwa a cikin teku yana tashi kowace rana ta 1.8 mm. Daga farkon karni na 19, ruwa ya tashi a can da cm 30. Wasu masana kimiyya sun ce da 2100 matakin Tekun Duniya zai tashi da 50 cm, a cikin 2300 wannan adadi ya riga ya zama mita 1.5. Ice ba ya narke a kololuwar dutse, kamar, misali, Kilimanjaro. Kuma a cikin tsaunukan Kenya da Tanzaniya, zazzabi ya ragu, amma ba ya ƙaruwa. Wani abu makamancin haka yana faruwa a cikin Himalayas. Dumamar yanayi a duniya ba shi da wani tasiri a gabar Teku, wanda bisa ga hasashen, ya kamata ya daina.

A yau, yawancin masana da talakawa sun yarda cewa bala'in muhalli wata dabara ce ta kamfanoni na duniya waɗanda ke samar da fasaha da adana kayan wuta. Ana fassara halin da ake ciki a bayyane da kuma gefe daya, don haka ba a yiwa barazanar mutuwar Arctic da mazaunanta da duniyar rayuwa ba.

Idan kun sami kuskure, da fatan za selecti yanki na rubutu kuma latsa Ctrl + Shigar.

Yankin dusar ƙanƙara na Arctic a watan Satumba da Maris bisa ga lurawar tauraron dan adam (Cibiyar Kula da Yankin kankara ta Amurka da Cibiyar Kulawa da Ice, NSIDC, Jami'ar Colorado, Amurka, http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/)

Gaba daya sakamakon dumamar yanayi

Rarrabawar duniya na tsammanin canjin yanayin zafi nan gaba yana da halaye da yawa don abubuwa daban-daban - don yanayi daban-daban na tasirin cutar ɗan adam, wanda iskar gas ta fitar da iska mai mahimmanci. Wannan hoton - tare da matsanancin zafin dumin ƙasa idan aka kwatanta da teku, da kuma dumama mai ƙarfi a cikin Arctic - an adana shi shekaru da yawa na samfurin jiki da lissafi na tsarin yanayin, gami da lissafin kwanan nan. Sakamakon mai dorewa na yin kwaikwayon tsarin yanayin har ila yau sun hada da: canjin sanyin kankara na tekun a cikin kankara na lokaci, raguwar murfin ƙasa, lalacewar lalacewar yanayin ruwa da hauhawar hazo a cikin Arctic.

Arctic shine ɗayan yankuna huɗu na duniya da IPCC ta bayyana a matsayin mafi haɗarin canjin canjin yanayi (tare da ƙananan jihohin tsibiri, Afirka, da megadeltas na Afirka da koguna na Asiya). A lokaci guda, yankin Arctic babban misali ne na canji na matsalolin kimiyya zuwa na siyasa. Canjin canjin yanayin da aka gani cikin 'yan shekarun da suka gabata a Arctic har ma da manyan canje-canje da ake tsammanin a ƙarni na 21 na iya tsananta halin da ake ciki ko haifar da sababbin hanyoyin shiga tsakani Wadannan matsalolin suna da alaƙa da bincika da haɓakar makamashi, amfani da hanyoyin jigilar teku da albarkatun halittu, ƙaddamar da shinge na tsibiri, yanayin yanki, da dai sauransu. Hakanan zasu iya zama tushen lalata ayyukan marine (gami da jiragen ruwa) a yankin.

Canjin canjin yanayi ya riga ya sami mummunar tasiri ga tsarin halitta, tattalin arziki da tsarin rayuwar Arctic. Yiwuwar cutarwar wadannan tasirin yana da girma; sakamako da yawa da ake tsammanin mummunan sakamako ne. A lokaci guda, dumamar yanayi zai wadatar da ci gaba a cikin yanayin yanayin ci gaban yankin Arctic, kodayake Arctic zata kasance cikin yankuna masu mummunan yanayi da yanayin yanayi.

O rarraba yanayin juyi na ƙasa na shekara-shekara a ƙarshen karni na 21. Sakamakon ƙididdigar lissafi mai amfani ta hanyar amfani da jerin yanayi na 31 CMIP5 samfuran yanayi waɗanda aka yi amfani da su a cikin Rahoton Nazarin IPCC na 5 (2013) don yanayin "matsakaici" RCP4.5. Ana nuna canje-canje game da yanayin zafi ta hanyar 2080 - 2099 dangane da lokacin 1980-1919.

Ruwa kankara na Arctic Ocean

Wataƙila sakamakon canje-canje a cikin kankara na yankin Arctic yana da mahimmanci duka ga yanayin kasa da kuma tattalin arziƙi, zamantakewar zamantakewa da tsaro na ƙasa. Da farko dai, wannan haɓakawa ne na tsawon lokacin kewayawa da ci gaban hanyoyin ruwa (gami da jigilar kaya), gami da yawon shakatawa (gami da yanayin ƙasa), da farko a gefen Titin Tekun Arewa. A lokaci guda, babban bambanci a cikin yanayin kankara na iya rikita nau'ikan ayyukan waje.

Bugu da kari, an sami damar isa ga albarkatun kasa na Arctic, gami da adana makamashi akan shiryayye na tekun Arctic. Wannan yana buɗe sababbin damar don ci gaban tattalin arziki, ƙirƙirar sabbin ayyuka, amma a lokaci guda yana haifar da ƙarin matsaloli ga yanayin da aikin tattalin arziki. Musamman, rage murfin kankara na tekun Arctic, musamman a farkon kaka, yana kara lalata lalacewar guguwa a yankin gabar teku, yana kara lalacewar wuraren tattalin arziki da ke ciki da kuma barazana ga rayuwar mutane da ke zaune. Lokacin farko na narkewa da ƙarshen lokacin dawo da murfin kankara ya sanya ya zama mai rauni, yana ƙara haɓaka haɗarin, rage tsawon lokacin da tasirin farautar mazaunan yan asalin yankin.

Yawan dumamar yanayi na iya haifar da ci gaban wasu kamun kifaye, tare da wuraren zama da hanyoyin ƙaura don nau'in kifaye da yawa sun canza. Canje-canje da ake tsammanin a cikin kankara na Arctic Ocean na iya kara dagula yanayi da mazaunin wasu nau'in fauna, misali, beyar pola.

Daya daga cikin mahimman matsalolin tattalin arziki da suka tashi dangane da canje-canjen da ake tsammanin za a samu a cikin kankara na Tekun Duniya shine makomar rundunar jiragen ruwan kankara. Babu shakka, yana da mahimmanci ba kawai don ragewa ba, amma, akasin haka, haɓaka jirgin ruwa mai dusar kankara, gami da amfani da manyan masan kankara. A bangare guda, a cikin Arctic mai dumin yanayi, shigar da jirgin zuwa manyan lamuran da karuwar tattalin arziki da sauran ayyuka a wannan yankin ana tsammanin za a sauƙaƙe. A gefe guda, adana ƙarancin kankara na yanayi (dukda ƙarancin kauri, haɗin kai da tsayi), kazalika da haɓaka adadin dusar kankara da ke kawo cikas ga zirga-zirgan jiragen ruwa zuwa tekun Arctic. An tsara Icebreakers don taimakawa wajen magance ci gaba da yawaitar matsaloli, da tabbatar da kasancewar bincike na gaba da sauran tasoshin a yankin Arctic.

Yankin kankara (miliyan sq. Km) a cikin Satumba a cikin Arewacin Hemisphere don yanayin yanayi guda biyu na tasirin yanayin ɗan adam: yanayin haɗuwa na 30 CMIP5 model - don yanayin RCP4.5 (layin shuɗi) kuma don yanayin RCP8.5 (layin jan), kazalika da watsarwar tsakanin mutane zuwa kashi na 10 da na 90 (launin shudi da ruwan hoda, da bi). Layin baƙar fata shine sakamakon bincike na lura da tauraron ɗan adam tsawon lokacin 1979-2016 (Cibiyar Kula da Gida da kankara ta Amurka, NSIDC)

Rushewar Permafrost ya haifar da barazanar aminci da dorewar gine-ginen gine-gine da injinan injiniyoyi da aka ginata a kai. Babban haɗarin ya shafi abubuwan tattalin arziki da bututun mai, wanda ke da mahimmanci musamman ga arewacin yammacin Siberiya saboda kasancewar lardin da ke da iskar gas mafi girma a cikin wannan yanki.

Canje-canje da ake tsammanin a cikin tsarin samar da ruwa yana da alaƙa da haɓakar haɗarin ambaliyar a cikin wasu yankuna (ba duka ba!) Koguna suna kwarara zuwa Tekun Arctic, musamman, Yenisei da Lena.

Sauran canje-canje sun danganta da sauyawar wasu nau'ikan halittu na gargajiya da tsabtace yanayin ƙasa, sabo da ruwan teku, gami da haɗuwa da mamayewa (mamayewa) sababbin nau'in tsire-tsire, kwari, ƙananan ƙwayoyin cuta. Akwai haɗari da barazana ga lafiyar da rayuwar indan asalin ƙasar, gami da sakamakon canje-canje a rayuwa, tsarin abinci da aiki.

Tabbas bayanin kula shine hatsarin karfafa tasirin tsarin (daya daga cikin) tasirin tasirin sakamako. Misali shi ne haɓakar haɗarin ɗan adam da barazanar da ke tattare da yanayin Arctic sakamakon sauƙin shiga Arctic da ƙaruwa da ci gabanta, wanda ke haifar da gurɓatar muhalli da illa mai illa ga jama'a, flora da fauna.

Rage haɗarin waɗannan haɗari da barazanar suna buƙatar takamaiman matakai akan ɓangaren jihar, gami da yanayin dacewa da sauye-sauyen yanayin yanzu da ake tsammanin. Wannan ya bayyana a cikin Rukunin Yanayi na dokar ta Rasha, wanda shugaban ya amince da shi a 2009. Koyarwar ta mayar da hankali kan tallafin kimiyya na manufar yanayi ta Rasha, gami da tabbatar da cewa binciken yanayin kasa ya cika ka'idojin kasa da kasa. Koyarwar, a tsakanin sauran abubuwa, ya ƙunshi haɓakawa da aiwatar da dabarar jihar da ta dace kuma, a kan tushenta, shirye-shiryen tarayya, yanki da ɓangarori da tsare-tsaren aiwatarwa, gami da batun Arctic.

Vladimir Kattsov, Likita na kimiyyar lissafi da lissafi, Darektan Babban Geophysical Observatory mai suna A.I. Voeikova Roshydromet

Yankin Arctic babban misali ne na canjin matsalolin kimiyya zuwa na siyasa.

Tambayoyi da yawa game da canjin yanayin Arctic a nan gaba da tasirinsu ga sauyin yanayi fiye da manyan wurare na arewacin hemisphere suna buɗewa. Don mafi yawan bangare, ana danganta su da ƙididdigar ƙididdiga, gami da ƙididdigar adadin canje-canje da ake tsammanin. Wadannan maganganun sun hada da masu zuwa:

- Ta yaya tsawon lokacin dusar kankara na Tekun Arctic zai juyawa daga kankantar shekaru zuwa yanayi?

- Yaya lokacin da kuma nawa carbon da ke cikin lalataccen lalacewar yanayi na iya shiga cikin yanayi kuma nawa ne wannan zai karfafa kyakkyawan ra'ayi tsakanin dumamar yanayi da narkewar yanayi?

- Ta yaya kuma ta yaya ƙara yawan fitar da ruwa mai ɗora daga Arctic zai iya haifar da ƙirƙirar ruwa mai zurfi a arewacin Atlantic kuma yaya hakan zai shafi canjin zafi a tekun Arewacin Atlantika?

- Shin lissafin abubuwa masu tasiri na zanen dusar ƙanƙara zai haifar da gagarumin aiki na narkewa, alal misali, dusar kankara ta Greenland a ƙarƙashin yanayin ƙarin dumamar duniya?

- Zuwa ta yaya raƙuman ruwa na sanyi da sanyi na yau da kullun da ake tsammanin zasu iya hade da dumamar Arctic?

- Matsalar kimiyya musamman mawuyaci: har yaya tsinkayar yanayin tururuwa a kan sikelin lokaci daga lokaci zuwa shekaru ya dogara da canje-canje a cikin ayyukan juyin halitta?

Kashi na Arctic a cikin Babban littafin Dabbobin Kayan Gwanin Yanayi

Canje-canje a cikin kankara na Tekun Arctic na iya dagula yanayi da mazaunin wuraren Arctic

Hoto: Alexander Petrosyan, Kommersant

Idan da akwai Babban Littafin Metaphors na zamanin, yana da tabbas Arctic zai cancanci babi dabam. Da zaran an kira Arctic saboda yanayin yanayin sa: yanayin ɗakin abinci, ɗakin shagon sanyi, da canary a cikin ma'adinan kwal (canaries suna da matukar damuwa ga ƙazamar yanayi, kamar methane ko carbon monoxide: dakatar da rera waƙoƙin da aka kawo a cikin mahaɗan ma'adinai shine alama ga masu hakar gwal. game da bukatar fitar da gaggawa), da kuma tushen cibiyar dumamar yanayi a duniya, har ma da yanki mai gurbata yanayi.

Kowane ɗayan waɗannan misalai suna da gaskiya da yawa. Koyaya, wasu daga cikinsu suna haɗarin rasa mahimmancin ƙarni na gaba. Don haka, muna bin Jack London ɗayan mashahurin mawaƙa wanda ya zama suna don ƙaramin labarinsa mai ban tsoro, White Silence. Shin wannan kwatancin zai iya rayuwa mai dumbin tarihi da kuma binciken Arctic a karni na 21? Ko kuwa wasu 'Red amo' zasu iya zama alaƙar da ta fi dacewa - daidai da palette mai launi na taswirar canje-canje a cikin zazzabi a ƙasa da kuma yanayin iskar teku da aka warware daga kankara?